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2) Evaluations such as those provided by Crowdcast demonstrate the rational actor is joined in the marketplace by the rational crowd; assimilating data and optimizing likely outcomes via a much larger set of inputs and possible outcomes than those applied to an individual

3) Traditional predictions are often costly. Crowdcasting techniques are cost effective; at a minimum they provide a powerful directional starting point. Why would you not employ a cost effective technique to confirm your more traditional forecasts are marching in the correct direction?

The easiest example here of the limitation of predictive markets lies in the public space. Had we simply relied on predictive markets sometime around October or November 2008, those markets generally reduced McCain to no chance of getting the nomination as well as indicated Obama had little chance and by simplistic usage of predictive markets we’d say we would not see an Obama-McCain scenario. But any political analyst understood those results were rooted in the (mistaken and limited) conventional wisdom and general knowledge available of that moment and by larger and less sophisticated crowds in this knowledge space. And to be fair to the amateur analysts of that moment, even a crude predictive market among so-called pundits, I am pretty sure, would have shown similar results, even if some marked uptick for Obama and a marginal uptick (but still a call for a loss of the nomination) for McCain.

Now here also is where intelligent crowdsourcing can overcome/refine predictive market aggregation outcomes. Crowdsourcing mechanisms by which we identify experts with good track records and isolate the TREND among particular crowd elements could well inform us of particularities that would suggest the extreme flux of the moment and suggest the greater chances that McCain enjoyed all along along with the limited parameters but (at the time) remote-but-real probabilities/scenarios for an Obama breakthrough.

Similarly, in the economic prediction crowd, there was a growing trend before the economic crisis of people spotting a crisis coming, but it seems no prediction market came close to giving us an accurate picture that a meltdown was imminent. On the other hand, we did see a growing number of experts suggest exactly that in the 1-2 years preceding the meltdown. Again, a mixture of predictive markets but also careful trend monitoring of qualitative crowdsourcing feedback seems more useful here than purely predictive markets.

So we have to understand when, where, and how to use predictive markets and not turn those into tomorrow’s surveys and polls, mechanisms which are too often abused and too often underexplained and become (mistakenly) too often dismissed. I suggest the greater frontier is that explanation rather than selling that they are useful.